Who will win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?
Short answer: On 11 November 2026, before nominations, the prediction market had a clear early favourite for Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars. It priced The Odyssey at 57.5% to win, ahead of You Can See Everything (16.6%) and La Bola Negra (12.5%). After the ceremony the live market page shows the winner.
The market on 11 November 2026
- The Odyssey — 57.5%
- You Can See Everything — 16.6%
- La Bola Negra — 12.5%
- Dune: Part Three — 7.5%
- Digger — 3%
- Wild Horse Nine — 0.9%
27 films were priced. The favourite alone carried more than half the probability, an unusually strong position this far from the ceremony.
Why an early favourite is fragile
November prices are set before most voters have seen every contender and before the guild awards. Those guilds — producers, directors, actors — share members with the Academy, and their results in January and February have historically been the best predictor of Best Picture. A favourite that fails to win the producers' award usually loses a large part of its price overnight.
The preferential ballot
Best Picture is the only Oscar decided by ranked voting. A film needs broad second- and third-place support, not just the most first-place votes. Divisive front-runners have lost to consensus choices this way, which is one reason the second and third names in a market like this deserve more attention than their prices suggest.
Related markets
Polymarket runs a separate market on which films will be nominated, plus acting and directing categories. The nominations market resolves first and is the cleaner bet if your view is about recognition rather than the final vote.
Size
About $831,000 had been traded by the snapshot date. That is thin: expect gaps between the buy and sell price on everything outside the top three.
Current prices: Oscars 2027 Best Picture — live market.
Prices are a snapshot of Polymarket's order book taken on 11 November 2026 and will have moved since; the live page has the current numbers, or the result if the event has been decided. A price is the market's estimate of a probability, not a forecast we endorse, and this is not advice to trade.