Question 1

How are earnings markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Markets resolve based on the official press release — beat/miss is measured against the Bloomberg consensus estimate at market close the day before earnings.

Question 2

Can I trade IPO timing?

Accepted Answer

Yes — markets exist for major unicorns (Stripe, SpaceX, Shein, Klarna) on whether they IPO by a specific date.

Question 3

What about rate decisions?

Accepted Answer

FOMC and ECB decision days see the tightest spreads — typically under 50bps on the probability of a 25bps cut.

Question 4

Can I hedge business exposure with prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Yes — buying NO on a Fed cut, an earnings beat, or an IPO-by-date contract acts as a fixed-cost hedge for traders with directional business exposure. The maximum loss is your stake, with no premium decay or margin calls.

Question 5

How are CPI and macro-data markets structured?

Accepted Answer

Macro data markets are typically range-based with four or five mutually exclusive outcome buckets covering plausible print levels. You buy the bucket you think is most likely. Resolution keys on the official BLS, BEA, or Fed release at the published time.

Mercati di previsione Economia 2026

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